Bet on Diane Abbott to become Labour leader

My bets on the general election weren't terribly successful, but I didn't lose much compared to the couple of thousand pounds I could have made if they came off!

Rather more modestly, I put a bet yesterday with Ladbrokes on Diane Abbott becoming the next Labour leader (I think they said "permanent" Labour leader to distinguish the winner of the leadership election from an interim leader such as Harriet Harman) at 25/1. I bet a tenner so stand to make £250 if it comes off.

The odds in the Guardian and Mirror yesterday morning were 33/1, so presumably I wasn't the only person who thought that generous. Who knows what will happen between now and when the voting takes place (it's complicated since a third of votes come from trade unions, and it probably depends on individual TUs when/if they hold votes of their members, but Labour Party members are balloted in September according to http://www2.labour.org.uk/leadership-timetable) - a Greece-style revolt to the Tory/LibDem coalition's proposed cuts, the complete collapse of the Euro, or other events to radicalise the population, could happen in the meantime.

The voting takes place using Alternative Vote (practice for the next general election if the coalition gets this proposal passed), so you can specify transfers if your first choice drops out. On the one hand, this means that tactical voting is unnecessary - you can vote for Diane knowing that it won't cost a soft left candidate (if you believe any of the other four fills the criterion) anything; however, it tends to result in victories for politicians with lowest common denominator compromise politics which may favour the "grey men in grey suits".

I checked with Ladbrokes again today and the odds on Diane winning are still 25/1.

[For the benefit of those who think I shouldn't make money out of my political analysis, I have spent tens of thousands of pounds over the years on socialist causes (with my own initiatives and contributing to organisations such as the Militant Tendency/Socialist Party). I'm not selling out; I will continue to help the left.]