Sunday, 25 April 2010

More bets on the general election (Liberal Democrats, Respect and Green Party)

I've just made some more bets with Ladbrokes. When I put £10 at 66/1 for the Liberal Democrats to get the most seats and £10 at 150/1 for them to get an overall majority, the day after the first live TV debate, I was not offered odds on them getting the highest number of votes. If they do get the most votes but only about 150 seats, as some polls have suggested, there will be a massive constitutional crisis, probably leading to the introduction of proportional representation and a new general election. I found that I could get 3/1 (yesterday I think) on them getting most votes and decided to cover my losses, so that I don't lose out financially from such a great situation. Some new opinion polls today are showing the Tories regaining the lead (doubtless largely due to an onslaught from the big business press), so I managed to get odds of 4/1 this morning (I put another £10 on this).

I also put some bets on individual constituencies (which were not available last time I enquired). I put a token bet of £1 at 3/1 on Respect holding Bethnal Green and Bow, currently George Galloway's seat (Abjol Miah is the new candidate, I don't know much about him). I also put a bet on Galloway himself winning Poplar and Limehouse - I think I got 14/1 for that (it was certainly better odds than the 7/1 that somebody said was available previously on my Facebook wall - he complained he was not allowed to make the bet in a Ladbrokes shop and didn't want to open an internet account, which I have done (but make my bets on the phone)). I put £10 on Galloway but put £1 on the Lib Dems at about 20/1 to cover my losses.

I couldn't remember the constituencies of some other candidates I'm supporting, apart from my own - Manchester Central. I'm voting for the Green Party candidate, Gayle O'Donovan, who called herself an "anarcho-socialist", so I thought I'd put a bet on her. It's a long shot, but I got odds of 100/1 and put £10 on her. I again covered my losses with a £1 bet on the Lib Dems (at something like 20/1) - Labour are 500/1 on (i.e. you bet £5 and win 1p plus your stake back) here, so it'd be monumental if longstanding MP Tony Lloyd loses his seat; he's actually quite a nice guy (I've met him when we were campaigning against sanctions on Iraq which pushed the masses into the arms of Saddam Hussein) so it's a bit of a shame but still...

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